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Change and Continuity in 2000 and 2002 Elections

Change and Continuity in 2000 and 2002 Elections - rev edition

ISBN13: 978-1568027425

Cover of Change and Continuity in 2000 and 2002 Elections  REV 03 (ISBN 978-1568027425)
ISBN13: 978-1568027425
ISBN10: 1568027427
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Edition/Copyright: REV 03
Publisher: Congressional Quarterly
Published: 2003
International: No

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Change and Continuity in 2000 and 2002 Elections - REV 03 edition

ISBN13: 978-1568027425

Paul R. Abramson, John H. Aldrich and David W. Rohde

ISBN13: 978-1568027425
ISBN10: 1568027427
Cover type:
Edition/Copyright: REV 03
Publisher: Congressional Quarterly

Published: 2003
International: No
Summary

Even though analysts are proclaiming the 2002 elections as a major Republican victory, only a few seats actually changed hands. The shift, however slight, is consequential, as the Republicans have regained control of the Senate while running counter to the long-established tendency for the party holding the White House to lose seats during midterm elections. As the authors show, both the 1998 and 2002 midterms were held under highly unusual circumstances that allowed the president's party to defy historical trends. In the series you have come to rely on for the most-up-to-date election analysis, Change and Continuity in the 2000 and 2002 Elections clearly explains the significance of the recent midterm elections within the fuller picture of American political behavior.

In addition to the systematic analysis of the National Election Survey (NES) conducted shortly before and after the 2000 presidential and congressional elections, the authors include two additional chapters for this new volume. One is a systematic analysis of the 2002 elections that accounts for Republican gains and discusses implications for changes in public policy. The second places these Republican victories in the context of American party politics and examines how recent changes to nomination procedures -- most importantly the heavily frontloaded primary and caucus schedule for 2004 -- will affect the chances of Democratic presidential hopefuls.

As always, election data are presented in a straightforward manner, avoiding sophisticated statistics that nonexperts find inaccessible, while the most recent research literature is discussed and incorporated.

Author Bio

Abramson, Paul R. :

Paul R. Abramson is professor of political science at Michigan State University. He is the author of Generational Change in American Politics (1975), The Political Socialization of Black Americans (1977), and Political Attitudes in America (1983), and coauthor of Value Change in Global Perspective (1995).


Aldrich, John H. :

John H. Aldrich is Pfizer-Pratt University Professor of Political Science at Duke University. He is the author of Before the Convention (1980) and Why Parties? (1995). In 2001 he was elected as a Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences.


Rohde, David W. :

David W. Rohde is University Distinguished Professor in the Department of Political Science at Michigan State University. He is the coauthor of Supreme Court Decision Making (1976), coeditor of Home Style and Washington Work (1989), and author of Parties and Leaders in the Postreform House (1991).



Table of Contents

Part 1. The 2000 Presidential Election Contest

1. The Nomination Struggle

Who Ran
The Rules of the Nomination System
Why Bush Won
Why Gore Won
The Conventions

2. The General Election Campaign

The Strategic Context and the Candidates' Choices
From Labor Day to the Debates
The Debates: The Republicans Surpass Low Expectations
Final Efforts
Did the Campaign Matter?

3. The Election Results

The Election Rules
The Pattern of Results
State-by-State Results
Electoral Change in the Postwar South
The Electoral Vote Balance

Part 2. Voting Behavior in the 2000 Presidential Election

4. Who Voted?

Turnout from 1828 through 1920
Turnout from 1920 through 2000
Turnout among Social Groups
Why Has Turnout Declined?
Does Low Turnout Matter?

5. Social Forces and the Vote

How Social Groups Voted in 2000
How Social Groups Voted During the Postwar Years
Why the New Deal Coalition Broke Down

6. Candidates, Issues, and the Vote

Attitudes Toward the Candidates
Retrospective and Prospective Evaluations
The Concerns of the Electorate
Issue Positions and Perceptions
Issue Voting Criteria
Apparent Issue Voting in 2000
Conclusion

7. Presidential Performance and Candidate Choice

What is Retrospective Voting?
Evaluations of Government Performance
Economic Evaluations and the Vote for the Incumbent
Evaluations of the Incumbent
The Impact of Retrospective Evaluations
Conclusion

8. Party Loyalties, Policy Preferences, and the Vote

Party Identification: The Standard View
Party Identification: An Alternative View
Party Identification in the Electorate
Party Identification and the Vote
Policy Preferences and Performance Evaluations
Conclusion

Part 3. The 2000 Congressional Election

9. Candidates and Outcomes in 2000

Election Outcomes in 2000
Candidates' Resources and Election Outcomes
The 2000 Elections: The Impact on Congress
The 2002 Elections and Beyond

10. The Congressional Electorate in 2000

Social Forces and the Congressional Vote
Issues and the Congressional Vote
Party Identification and the Congressional Vote
Incumbency and the Congressional Vote
The Congressional Vote as a Referendum
Presidential Coattails and the Congressional Vote
Conclusion

Part 4. The 2000 and 2004 Elections in Perspective

11. The 2002 Elections

Prospects for the Democrats
Prospects for the Republicans
Prospects for a New Political Party
Prospects for Continued Electoral Volatility

12. The 2000 and 2002 Elections and the Future of American Politics

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