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ISBN13: 978-0470038406

ISBN10: 0470038403

Edition: 2ND 07

Copyright: 2007

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Published: 2007

International: No

ISBN10: 0470038403

Edition: 2ND 07

Copyright: 2007

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Published: 2007

International: No

Successful business modeling is much more than a technical discipline; it's an art. The new second edition of this innovative book covers spreadsheet engineering, management science techniques, and those essential craft skills needed to develop real expertise in business modeling. Readers will discover how to utilize effective methods for designing, building, and testing models, and for performing model-based analyses. And they'll learn about the standard statistical and management science techniques used in business today.

CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION.

1.1 Models and Modeling.

1.2 The Role of Spreadsheets.

1.3 The Real World and the Model World.

1.4 Lessons from Expert and Novice Modelers.

1.5 Organization of the Book.

1.6 Summary.

CHAPTER 2 MODELING IN A PROBLEM-SOLVING FRAMEWORK.

2.1 Introduction.

2.2 The Problem-Solving Process.

2.3 Influence Charts.

2.4 Craft Skills for Modeling.

2.5 Summary.

CHAPTER 3 BASIC EXCEL SKILLS.

3.1 Introduction.

3.2 Excel Prerequisites.

3.3 The Excel Window.

3.4 Configuring Excel.

3.5 Manipulating Windows and Sheets.

3.6 Navigation.

3.7 Selecting Cells.

3.8 Entering Text and Data.

3.9 Editing Cells.

3.10 Formatting.

3.11 Basic Formulas.

3.12 Basic Functions.

3.13 Charting.

3.14 Printing.

3.15 Help Options.

3.16 Summary.

CHAPTER 4 ADVANCED EXCEL SKILLS.

4.1 Introduction.

4.2 Keyboard Shortcuts.

4.3 Controls.

4.4 Cell Comments.

4.5 Naming Cells and Ranges.

4.6 Advanced Formulas and Functions.

4.7 Recording Macros And Using VBA.

4.8 Summary.

CHAPTER 5 SPREADSHEET ENGINEERING.

5.1 Introduction.

5.2 Designing a Spreadsheet.

5.3 Designing a Workbook.

5.4 Building a Workbook.

5.5 Testing a Workbook.

5.6 Auditing Software: Spreadsheet Professional.

5.7 Summary.

CHAPTER 6 ANALYSIS USING SPREADSHEETS.

6.1 Introduction.

6.2 Base-case Analysis.

6.3 What-If Analysis.

6.4 Breakeven Analysis.

6.5 Optimization Analysis.

6.6 Simulation and Risk Analysis.

6.7 Summary.

CHAPTER 7 DATA ANALYSIS FOR MODELING.

7.1 Introduction.

7.2 Finding Facts from Databases.

7.3 Analyzing Sample Data.

7.4 Estimating Parameters: Point Estimates.

7.5 Estimating Parameters: Interval Estimates.

7.6 Summary.

CHAPTER 8 REGRESSION ANALYSIS.

8.1 Introduction.

8.2 A Decision-Making Example.

8.3 Exploring Data: Scatter Plots and Correlation.

8.4 Simple Linear Regression.

8.5 Goodness-of-Fit.

8.6 Simple Regression in the BPI Example.

8.7 Simple Nonlinear Regression.

8.8 Multiple Linear Regression.

8.9 Multiple Regression in the BPI Example.

8.10 Regression Assumptions.

8.11Using the Excel Tools Trendline and LINEST.

8.12 Summary.

CHAPTER 9 SHORT-TERM FORECASTING.

9.1 Introduction.

9.2 Forecasting with Time Series Models.

9.2.1 The Moving Average Model.

9.2.2 Measures of Forecast Accuracy.

9.3 The Exponential Smoothing Model.

9.4 Exponential Smoothing with a Trend.

9.5 Exponential Smoothing with Trend and Cyclical Factors.

9.6 Using CB Predictor.

9.6.1 Single Moving Average.

9.6.2 Single Exponential Smoothing.

9.7 Summary.

CHAPTER 10 NONLINEAR OPTIMIZATION.

10.1 Introduction.

10.2 An Optimization Example.

10.3 Building Models for Solver.

10.4 Model Classification and the Nonlinear Solver.

10.5 Nonlinear Programming Examples.

10.5.1 Facility Location.

10.6 Sensitivity Analysis for Nonlinear Programs.

10.7 The Portfolio Optimization Model.

10.8 Summary.

CHAPTER 11 LINEAR PROGRAMMING.

11.1 Introduction.

11.2 Allocation Models.

11.3 Covering Models.

11.4 Blending Models.

11.5 Sensitivity Analysis for Linear Programs.

11.6 Patterns in Linear Programming Solutions.

11.7 Data Envelopment Analysis.

11.8 Summary.

Appendix 11.1.

CHAPTER 12 NETWORK MODELS.

12.1 Introduction.

12.2 The Transportation Model.

12.3 Assignment Model.

12.4 The Transshipment Model.

12.5 A Standard Form for Network Models.

12.6 Network Models with Yields.

12.7 Network Models for Process Technologies.

12.8 Summary.

CHAPTER 13 INTEGER PROGRAMMING.

13.1 Introduction.

13.2 Integer Variables and the Integer Solver.

13.3 Binary Variables and Binary Choice Models.

13.4 Binary Variables and Logical Relationships.

13.5 The Facility Location Model.

13.6 Summary.

CHAPTER 14 DECISION ANALYSIS.

14.1 Introduction.

14.2 Payoff Tables and Decision Criteria.

14.3 Using Trees to Model Decisions.

14.4 Using TreePlan Software.

14.5 Maximizing Expected Utility with TreePlan.

14.6 Summary.

CHAPTER 15 MONTE CARLO SIMULATION.

15.1 Introduction.

15.2 A Simple Illustration.

15.3 The Simulation Process.

15.4 Corporate Valuation Using Simulation.

15.5 Option Pricing Using Simulation.

15.6 Selecting Uncertain Parameters.

15.7 Selecting Probability Distributions.

15.8 Ensuring Precision in Outputs.

15.9 Interpreting Simulation Outcomes.

15.9.1 Forecast Charts.

15.9.2 Statistics and Percentiles.

15.10 When Not to Simulate.

15.11 Summary.

Appendix 15.1 Choosing Crystal Ball Settings.

Appendix 15.2 Additional features of Crystal Ball.

CHAPTER 16 OPTIMIZATION IN SIMULATION.

16.1 Introduction.

16.2 Optimization with One or Two Decision Variables.

16.3 Complex Optimization Problems.

16.4 Embedded Optimization: Using Solver within Crystal Ball.

16.5 Summary.

MODELING CASES.

APPENDIX BASIC PROBABILITY CONCEPTS.

INDEX.

Stephen G. Powell and Kenneth R. Baker

ISBN13: 978-0470038406ISBN10: 0470038403

Edition: 2ND 07

Copyright: 2007

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Published: 2007

International: No

Successful business modeling is much more than a technical discipline; it's an art. The new second edition of this innovative book covers spreadsheet engineering, management science techniques, and those essential craft skills needed to develop real expertise in business modeling. Readers will discover how to utilize effective methods for designing, building, and testing models, and for performing model-based analyses. And they'll learn about the standard statistical and management science techniques used in business today.

Table of Contents

CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION.

1.1 Models and Modeling.

1.2 The Role of Spreadsheets.

1.3 The Real World and the Model World.

1.4 Lessons from Expert and Novice Modelers.

1.5 Organization of the Book.

1.6 Summary.

CHAPTER 2 MODELING IN A PROBLEM-SOLVING FRAMEWORK.

2.1 Introduction.

2.2 The Problem-Solving Process.

2.3 Influence Charts.

2.4 Craft Skills for Modeling.

2.5 Summary.

CHAPTER 3 BASIC EXCEL SKILLS.

3.1 Introduction.

3.2 Excel Prerequisites.

3.3 The Excel Window.

3.4 Configuring Excel.

3.5 Manipulating Windows and Sheets.

3.6 Navigation.

3.7 Selecting Cells.

3.8 Entering Text and Data.

3.9 Editing Cells.

3.10 Formatting.

3.11 Basic Formulas.

3.12 Basic Functions.

3.13 Charting.

3.14 Printing.

3.15 Help Options.

3.16 Summary.

CHAPTER 4 ADVANCED EXCEL SKILLS.

4.1 Introduction.

4.2 Keyboard Shortcuts.

4.3 Controls.

4.4 Cell Comments.

4.5 Naming Cells and Ranges.

4.6 Advanced Formulas and Functions.

4.7 Recording Macros And Using VBA.

4.8 Summary.

CHAPTER 5 SPREADSHEET ENGINEERING.

5.1 Introduction.

5.2 Designing a Spreadsheet.

5.3 Designing a Workbook.

5.4 Building a Workbook.

5.5 Testing a Workbook.

5.6 Auditing Software: Spreadsheet Professional.

5.7 Summary.

CHAPTER 6 ANALYSIS USING SPREADSHEETS.

6.1 Introduction.

6.2 Base-case Analysis.

6.3 What-If Analysis.

6.4 Breakeven Analysis.

6.5 Optimization Analysis.

6.6 Simulation and Risk Analysis.

6.7 Summary.

CHAPTER 7 DATA ANALYSIS FOR MODELING.

7.1 Introduction.

7.2 Finding Facts from Databases.

7.3 Analyzing Sample Data.

7.4 Estimating Parameters: Point Estimates.

7.5 Estimating Parameters: Interval Estimates.

7.6 Summary.

CHAPTER 8 REGRESSION ANALYSIS.

8.1 Introduction.

8.2 A Decision-Making Example.

8.3 Exploring Data: Scatter Plots and Correlation.

8.4 Simple Linear Regression.

8.5 Goodness-of-Fit.

8.6 Simple Regression in the BPI Example.

8.7 Simple Nonlinear Regression.

8.8 Multiple Linear Regression.

8.9 Multiple Regression in the BPI Example.

8.10 Regression Assumptions.

8.11Using the Excel Tools Trendline and LINEST.

8.12 Summary.

CHAPTER 9 SHORT-TERM FORECASTING.

9.1 Introduction.

9.2 Forecasting with Time Series Models.

9.2.1 The Moving Average Model.

9.2.2 Measures of Forecast Accuracy.

9.3 The Exponential Smoothing Model.

9.4 Exponential Smoothing with a Trend.

9.5 Exponential Smoothing with Trend and Cyclical Factors.

9.6 Using CB Predictor.

9.6.1 Single Moving Average.

9.6.2 Single Exponential Smoothing.

9.7 Summary.

CHAPTER 10 NONLINEAR OPTIMIZATION.

10.1 Introduction.

10.2 An Optimization Example.

10.3 Building Models for Solver.

10.4 Model Classification and the Nonlinear Solver.

10.5 Nonlinear Programming Examples.

10.5.1 Facility Location.

10.6 Sensitivity Analysis for Nonlinear Programs.

10.7 The Portfolio Optimization Model.

10.8 Summary.

CHAPTER 11 LINEAR PROGRAMMING.

11.1 Introduction.

11.2 Allocation Models.

11.3 Covering Models.

11.4 Blending Models.

11.5 Sensitivity Analysis for Linear Programs.

11.6 Patterns in Linear Programming Solutions.

11.7 Data Envelopment Analysis.

11.8 Summary.

Appendix 11.1.

CHAPTER 12 NETWORK MODELS.

12.1 Introduction.

12.2 The Transportation Model.

12.3 Assignment Model.

12.4 The Transshipment Model.

12.5 A Standard Form for Network Models.

12.6 Network Models with Yields.

12.7 Network Models for Process Technologies.

12.8 Summary.

CHAPTER 13 INTEGER PROGRAMMING.

13.1 Introduction.

13.2 Integer Variables and the Integer Solver.

13.3 Binary Variables and Binary Choice Models.

13.4 Binary Variables and Logical Relationships.

13.5 The Facility Location Model.

13.6 Summary.

CHAPTER 14 DECISION ANALYSIS.

14.1 Introduction.

14.2 Payoff Tables and Decision Criteria.

14.3 Using Trees to Model Decisions.

14.4 Using TreePlan Software.

14.5 Maximizing Expected Utility with TreePlan.

14.6 Summary.

CHAPTER 15 MONTE CARLO SIMULATION.

15.1 Introduction.

15.2 A Simple Illustration.

15.3 The Simulation Process.

15.4 Corporate Valuation Using Simulation.

15.5 Option Pricing Using Simulation.

15.6 Selecting Uncertain Parameters.

15.7 Selecting Probability Distributions.

15.8 Ensuring Precision in Outputs.

15.9 Interpreting Simulation Outcomes.

15.9.1 Forecast Charts.

15.9.2 Statistics and Percentiles.

15.10 When Not to Simulate.

15.11 Summary.

Appendix 15.1 Choosing Crystal Ball Settings.

Appendix 15.2 Additional features of Crystal Ball.

CHAPTER 16 OPTIMIZATION IN SIMULATION.

16.1 Introduction.

16.2 Optimization with One or Two Decision Variables.

16.3 Complex Optimization Problems.

16.4 Embedded Optimization: Using Solver within Crystal Ball.

16.5 Summary.

MODELING CASES.

APPENDIX BASIC PROBABILITY CONCEPTS.

INDEX.

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